Player prop bets add extra excitement to betting on sports. They give valuable insights into a player’s ability for daily fantasy baseball or when making bets on your favorite sportsbook.
Our AI-powered dfsPro model predicts several individual performances worth watching during today‘s games. Let’s look at some of our favorite MLB player prop bets for May 5. All statistical research is from FanGraphs.
MLB Prop Bets
James Paxton Under 4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-145, DraftKings)
James Paxton has not reached this line in 4 out of his last 5 starts, achieving only 15 strikeouts in 26 innings pitched this season. The Atlanta Braves have a strong lineup, ranking in the top 3 in OPS and WRC+ against left-handed pitchers over the last 30 games.
Considering Paxton’s difficulties shown in his low K% and Chase%, along with the Braves’ ability to limit strikeouts against lefties, it’s doubtful he’ll exceed 4.5 strikeouts, especially with the Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen well-rested.
Freddy Peralta Over 16.5 Outs Recorded (-145, DraftKings)
Freddy Peralta is ready to face a Chicago Cubs team missing key hitters and struggling against right-handed pitchers lately, ranking poorly in walk rate, OPS, and WRC+ over the last 14 games. With the Milwaukee Brewers bullpen tired from recent games, they’re depending on Peralta to pitch deep into the game, especially with no off day tomorrow.
Despite the Cubs' decent plate appearances per at-bat, their high strikeout rate plays into Peralta’s strengths. Sporting solid metrics like a 3.23 FIP and a 3.66 xERA, he’s even expected to keep his ERA under 1.5. Peralta has exceeded this line in 4 out of 5 starts this season, particularly excelling against teams with low walk rates.
Dean Kremer Over 16.5 Outs Recorded (-110, DraftKings)
Dean Kremer has consistently surpassed this mark in 5 out of 6 starts this season, often reaching pitch counts in the range of 90 to 100 pitches over his last three games. Meanwhile, the Cincinatti Reds have been struggling in nearly every offensive metric against right-handed pitchers (RHP) over the past 30 days. Their batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS all rank near the bottom of the league, with similarly poor numbers at their home ballpark. Additionally, they rank 18th in walks and last in groundball-to-flyball ratio, showing a tendency for quicker outs and plenty of double-play opportunities for opposing pitchers.
Kremer himself ranks 47th among qualifying pitchers in Pitches per Plate Appearance, averaging 3.9 pitches per plate appearance. Moreover, when Kremer has thrown 90 or more pitches, he has surpassed this outs line in 73% of games over the last two seasons. In the last 12 games started by right-handed pitchers against Cincinnati, 10 of those pitchers have covered this outs line.
Lock of the Day
Hunter Brown Over 3.5 Hits Allowed (-145, DraftKings)
Since 2023, Hunter Brown has consistently exceeded this line in 30 out of 35 games, marking an 85.7% success rate. In the current season, he has surpassed it in all 6 out of 6 games played. Notably, since 2023, he has only fallen short of this mark once when playing at home, and that was against the Oakland AthleticsHis performance in 2024 has not been very good, with a high 9.78 ERA and a .366 batting average against him (BAA). Even though his expected statistics are slightly better, with a 5.07 expected ERA (xERA) and a .297 expected BAA (xBAA), he is still one of the weakest pitchers in the league. It's surprising to see his line set this low considering these factors.
As for the Seattle Mariners offensive ability, they have a .219 batting average against right-handed pitchers (RHP) this season, with a 95 wRC+ indicating slightly below-average performance. In their last four games, they got hit totals of 9, 5, 6, and 6 respectively against opposing starting pitchers.
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